SpaceX BFR - Post 2

Next round of questions:

1. Will SpaceX start their own space station made from Bigelow modules?
1. If they start a tourism service with tickets to a private orbital hotel at less than 1m how many could they sell?  Use this as development funding.
2. How soon can the first ship be constructed? 
3. Could SpaceX launch their own lunar landing mission by 2021 as a demonstration of the concept?
4. How quickly can they build the Ocean Launch Platform?
5. Can the OLP launch Falcon9 in the interim to test the concept?
6. Can pad39A be modified to have two launch mounts to allow both BFR and Falcon9 launches?

SpaceX BFR 2017 System

Overall

The updated 2017 SpaceX BFR system promises to revolutionise our ability to build space based infrastructure and expand out into the solar system.

See spacex.com/mars

Below I review if the system can be brought online sooner, how it could be funded, which countries will benefit and what the next decade could look like.

Timeline

• 2017 - BFR plan announced in Adelaide
• 2018 - Construction begins. First contracts signed with customers (Nasa etc)
• 2020 - First ship ready, first orbital flight
• 2021 - First lunar lander - Return to the moon demonstrating automated landing on a different planet
• 2022 - First Mars Expedition - 2 ships as planned, cargo on - likely to be mix of ISRU equipment for testing, power generation, construction and science.
• 2024 - Second Mars Expedition - 4 ships initially planned, could they do more?  First crewed mission.
• 2026 - Third Mars Expedition
• 2028 - Fourth Mars Expedition
• 2030 - Fifth Mars Expedition

Launch sites

SpaceX will initially start with launches from Pad39A in Florida and then Texas based Boca Chica. Map location here .

Depending on funding/commercial arrangements (and development of the Offshore Launch Platform - see below) other countries could have flights supporting the program from early 2020.

These three countries are natural first options to help support the program due to their their eastward launch azimuths, regulatory alignment with US etc :

• Australia - Onshore at Woomera, Offshore - Cairns or Brisbane
• New Zealand - off the coast of Whangarei
• Japan - off the coast. Japan could end up being the first non-US manufacturing BFR location due to the expertise of companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and the close business ties Musk already has in Japan.

Offshore Launch Platforms (OLP).

The Earth to Earth service uses Offshore Launch Platforms (OLPs)

The OLP can enable any country with good ocean access to have a dedicated launch facility.  The implications of this are staggering.  This means that SpaceX could within a decade quite easily have BFR vehicles lifting off on an hourly basis from multiple locations around the globe.

The OLP and supporting infrastructure represent a significant development opportunity for the marine construction sector through building and sale of:

• The OLP itself
• Refueling tankers for Methane and Liquid Oxygen
• Cargo delivery
• High speed ferries for passenger transport in long term

Funding

In order to accelerate the development of the BFR system SpaceX should use outside funding.  Some ideas include:

• Setup a new subsidiary company (SpaceX BFR LLC) to oversee production of the vehicles. SpaceX owns all the IP, does all the R&D.
• List the above subsidiary on NYSE or Nasdaq to raise cash for production and testing
• Investment from Google and other high net worth companies including a partnership with Boeing and Lockheed (see below)
• Investment from high net worth individuals - Warren Buffet, Paul Allen etc
• Investment from Government economic development agencies (in exchange for factories, launch sites) - Japan, Saudi Arabia, India, Dubai

Boeing and LockheedMartin

If the BFR (and Blue Origin New Glenn vehile) are successful then Boeing and Lockheeds current launch vehicles in the United Launch Alliance stable are obsolete and it is hard to see how any entity would order them past 2025.

In the interest of long term shareholder value, both companies should explore a partnership agreement with SpaceX to help co-fund, develop and manufacture the BFR system.

Factories and manufacturing rates

Gwynn Shotwell said on the Space Show earlier in 2017  that they would stick with selling the service model i.e. selling a launch not selling vehicles to other launch providers.  It will be interesting to see if they stick with this strategy or choose a select few entities to sell complete vehicles too in order to help with financing.

Once the system has flown successfully I believe SpaceX will have face overwhelming demand for this launch capability. In order to meet this demand they will need to be able ramp up their production rate.

• Currently SpaceX seems to be able manufacture at least 20 Falcon9 per annum.
• For comparison to commercial airlines Boeing can build approx 12-14 787 Dreamliners per month at present.

It seems obvious that like Tesla building the Gigafactory to cope with increased battery supply, that SpaceX will need to establish over time, multiple new manufacturing sites to meet demand.  This redundancy in manufacturing capability will ensure that high launch rates can be maintained and weather events, natural disasters etc will not cause catastrophic pauses to the program.

Some of these sites will need to be / are likely to be outside of the US.  Japan and Australia as mentioned above are probably early candidates.

Next post

In the next post I will look at the type of missions this system can perform, and examine the effect on other launch providers.